Earthquakes

Resiliency

What If a 7.0 Earthquake Hit the San Francisco Bay Area?

HAYWIRED Logo

What if a major earthquake hit the San Francisco Bay Area? Would you and your family be prepared? 

Next month, the HayWired Scenario – a major California regional and statewide earthquake preparedness initiative – will be released to the public, providing a scientific, realistic and quantitative depiction of what would happen if there was a magnitude 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault with an epicenter in Oakland. The initiative wants to shift behavior surrounding earthquakes by improving communications and the use of earthquake hazard, early warning and aftershock forecast information, as well as inform building codes, build community capacity and foster business continuity planning.

Developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, the scenario's public release will kick off on April 18, 2018, with a press event at U.C. Berkeley’s California Memorial Stadium, University Club, with the annual Lawson Lecture, including a panel from 4:30 - 6:30 p.m. so you can ask the HayWired team questions. The release of the HayWired Scenario also marks the beginning of the HayWired Public Engagement Campaign, known as Outsmart Disaster. Read More

Resiliency

The Dangers of Housing Loss in an Earthquake

Earthquake Damage

This past fall, the four 2017 North Bay Wildfires damaged or destroyed an estimated 8,900 structures, taking out a major chunk of Santa Rosa’s (and the wider region’s) housing stock. It served as an uneasy reminder of the potential dangers the Bay Area and its residents face from other ever-present natural hazards, such as earthquakes. For example: How many buildings could be damaged? How many households displaced? How many residents in need of shelter?

A new page from ABAG’s Resilience Program, Expected Housing Losses in an Earthquake, provides the latest and greatest research findings about the region’s seismic risk – including the fact that up to 70,000 residential buildings could be made uninhabitable. In the below video, Dana Brechwald, Resilience Planner, discusses the research and details the residential building damage estimates and displacement risks for 16 different earthquake scenarios. Read More

Land Use

The Bay Area’s 30 Year Earthquake Risk Projection

Map of the Bay Area depicting thirty-year earthquake risk.

Living in the Bay Area, we all know the “Big One” is (probably) coming.  But how likely, and when?  October’s Map of the Month tries to convey the Bay Area 30 Year Earthquake Risk both in terms of probability of an earthquake occurring anywhere in the Bay Area as well as probability for any given major fault within the region.  As can be seen, there is a roughly 3 in 4 chance the Bay Area will experience a magnitude 6.7 or greater earthquake over the next 30 years, according to the United States Geological Survey.   Read More