Poll shows majority support for potential 2026 transit measure

Results of an October poll of voters in five Bay Area counties gauging sentiment about a potential November 2026 transportation sales tax measure will be presented next week to the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC)’s and the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG)’s Joint Legislation Committee. 

MTC commissioned the poll after Gov. Gavin Newsom signed into law state Senate Bill 63, authorizing voters consideration of a half-cent sales tax in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties — and a one-cent sales tax in San Francisco — to generate approximately $980 million a year to prevent major service cuts at BART and other Bay Area transit systems; to support transit safety, cleanliness, affordability and reliability; to repair targeted roads and potholes; and to require financial transparency, oversight and accountability. 

The new poll, conducted by Oakland-based EMC Research, found that a majority (56%) of voters in the five counties would support the measure. This is two percentage points higher than the 54% of respondents who expressed support in a similar poll conducted this January after SB 63 was introduced by state senators Scott Wiener of San Francisco and Jesse Arreguín of Berkeley. The vast majority (84%) of respondents to the October poll say public transit is important to the Bay Area and 58% indicate transit is very important. Both figures mark a jump from polling done in 2023, when 79% of respondents felt transit is important to the region and just 47% said it was very important.

Roughly 61% of voters in the five counties hold a favorable opinion of Bay Area public transit. This reflects an eight percentage point increase over the past two years. The share of voters reporting that the Bay Area is trending in the right direction rose from 37% to 55% during this period, while the share of those who feel things are on the wrong track fell from 55% to 44%. 

A total of 2,800 Bay Area voters responded to the October poll, which allowed participants to answer questions in English, Spanish or Chinese. EMC will present the full results of its most recent polling at the Friday, Nov. 14, meeting of the MTC-ABAG Joint Legislation Committee. 

SB 63 allows a November 2026 transportation revenue measure to be placed on the ballot either through action by the newly formed Public Transit Revenue Measure District, which is governed by the same board as MTC, or via a qualified voter initiative.